Week 13 of the NFL is upon us and we can only hope it lives up to the hype of week 11. There are a number of stat and data-based tools to help us untangle every match-up; who to choose and who to avoid. Last week he was 2-1; our go-to guy to get the picks is RJ Bell (@RJinVegas on Twitter). We gave a short recap but listen to the audio below to get the full breakdown!
Big Dog: Los Angeles Rams +13 at New England Patriots
When the Pats are double digit favorites they’re 33-4 straight up and 11-25 against the spread. This week Gronk is out and Brady is a little gimpy so RJ thinks New England is going to be a little more conservative than normal. The Rams have also been conservative the past couple weeks trying to protect their new QB. Conservative means lower scoring and closer games. Also, Jeff Fisher is 30 games over .500 as an under dog.
Best Bet: Oakland Raiders -3 hosting Buffalo Bills
Oakland is another surprise this year. Rj has said it before and he’s saying it again, he thinks the Raiders are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL this year. They’re 5-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less and that’s a huge element of luck that’s unsustainable. The public doesn’t realize that but Vegas knows differently and they account for that when betting. RJ likes Oakland in this game.
Big Game: Seattle Seahawks -7 hosting Carolina Panthers
RJ is going with Seattle in this game laying a touchdown. There’s a concept in Vegas called the ‘dream crusher’. In this case Carolina is the ‘dream crusher’. The Panthers can’t even make the playoff this year so they’re already looking towards next season. On the flip side this is a big game for Seattle. Sunday Night Football, Seattle has the best home field in the NFL, the crowd will be rocking. When they’re not favored by more than a touchdown they’re 15-3 against the spread. The past 5 years in December they’re 18-3-1 against the spread. RJ thinks Seattle will crush Carolina.